China Is Expected To Exceed Economic Targets
The country maintains the continuity, stability and sustainability of macroeconomic policies. Officials and experts said that despite the threat of COVID-19 variants and supply restrictions. China expected to achieve economic growth and controllable inflation levels far above the target this year.
Vice Premier Liu He stated that China’s economy has continued to recover since the beginning of this year. The annual GDP growth expected to exceed the expected target.
In his speech at the Hamburg Summit via a video link on Tuesday. Liu said that since the beginning of this year, indicators such as economic growth, employment, prices and balance of payments have generally remained at normal levels.
China’s annual economic growth target for this year set at more than 6%. Experts say that the world’s second largest economy grew by 9.8% year-on-year in the first three quarters of this year. It expected that the annual GDP growth will reach about 8%.
Kang Yong, chief economist of KPMG China. Said that strong export growth has promoted the continuous recovery of industrial production and manufacturing investment.
“Despite the emergence of the Omicron variant. We keep our forecasts for China’s GDP growth this year and next year unchanged. As long as the coronaviruses around the world are not under control, new variants will appear, which expected,” Kang said. .
Kang said that unless Omicron proves to be more contagious than the Delta variant. Its economic impact should be less than the latter because vaccination rates have increased and the world is more experienced in responding to pandemics.
“I don’t think China’s economy is facing stagflation,” Kang added. Consumer inflation is still moderate, and the surge in industrial prices has begun to slow as the supply of electricity. Bulk commodities has recovered.
According to a survey released on Wednesday by the media group Caixin. As the shortage of power supply eased in November. Manufacturing production resumed its expansion last month, and the industry’s rising input costs have slowed significantly.
Looking forward to next year, China will maintain the continuity, stability and sustainability of its macro policies, increase its efforts to revitalize micro entities, and provide a better development environment for small and medium-sized enterprises and foreign-funded enterprises. .
His remarks come as the market is waiting for clues about China’s economic policy agenda next year from the Central Economic Work Conference. Which usually held in December.
Hu Yifan, head of macroeconomics for the Asia-Pacific region of UBS Global Wealth Management. Said that Liu’s remarks implied that the Chinese government may moderately relax macroeconomic policies in the coming year to avoid a sharp economic slowdown. But given the focus, it is unlikely to adopt radical stimulus measures. Regarding policy stability sex.
At the same time, the government is expected to continue to work on its long-term structural adjustment agenda and will continue to support key areas such as technological innovation and social welfare, she said.
Specifically, the People’s Bank of China may lower the deposit reserve ratio before the Spring Festival holiday that begins at the end of January.
Hu said that at the same time, a large amount of fiscal expenditure may be spent next year in high-end manufacturing. Green investment, and smart infrastructure.
She added that as infrastructure investment accelerates and consumption growth cushions. The slowdown in real estate development, China’s economy may grow by about 5.4% next year. After taking into account the impact of last year’s ultra-low base, it will remain stable compared with this year.