China’s Economic Growth Slows to 8% in 2021
The International Monetary Fund predicts that the world economic will grow by 5.9% this year, while China’s growth will slow to 8%, both 0.1 percentage points lower than the IMF’s estimate in July due to the uncertainty caused by the pandemic With the increase, the global recovery continues.
In its quarterly World Economic Outlook released on Tuesday. The International Monetary Fund stated: “The downgrade for 2021 reflects the downgrading of advanced economies — partly due to supply disruption — and low-income developing countries, mainly due to The dynamics of the epidemic worsened.”
IMF economic adviser Gita Gopinath pointed out that driven by the highly spread variant of Delta. The recorded global COVID-19 death toll has risen by nearly 5 million, and health risks abound, hindering a full return to normalcy.
According to the International Monetary Fund
China’s outlook for 2021 slightly lowered due to a stronger-than-expected reduction in public investment; the country’s economic growth in 2022 is estimated to be 5.6%, which is also 0.1 percentage point lower than the IMF’s July forecast .
The US economy expected to grow by 6% this year, 1 percentage point lower than the July forecast. However, due to the expected further policy support, the US economic growth expected to reach 5.2% next year. The upward revision of 0.3 percentage points comes from the July forecast.
IMF Research Director Gopinath said that looking forward to this year. The IMF predicts that the global economy will grow by 4.9% in 2022, which is the same as the July forecast, but there are “dangerous differences” in the prospects of various countries.
The total output of advanced economies expected to return to the pre-pandemic trend in 2022 and exceed it by 0.9% in 2024. While the total output of emerging markets and developing economies (excluding China) expected to still be Before the pandemic, it is 5.5% lower than the forecast to 2024, leading to greater setbacks in improving their living standards.
“These differences are the result of the’great vaccine gap’ and huge differences in policy support,”
Gopinath wrote in a blog, noting that although more than 60% of the population in advanced economies vaccinated. Some people are now Receive booster vaccination. After being vaccinated, about 96% of the population in low-income countries has not yet been vaccinated.
Therefore, she writes, the most important policy focus is to vaccinate at least 40% of the population. Each country by the end of 2021 and 70% of the population by mid-2022.
In the latest World Economic Outlook. The International Monetary Fund stated that countries with a large proportion of the vaccinated population urgently need to donate vaccines. It estimate that by the end of 2021. At least 1 billion doses of vaccine can shared without endangering the country Vaccination goals.
“The recent commitments made by China, the Group of Seven and other countries in this regard are welcome steps. But donations should accelerated to fulfil their commitments quickly,” it said.
Chinese President Xi Jinping
Said in a video speech during the general debate of the 76th UN General Assembly in September of China strives to provide the world with a total of 2 billion doses of vaccine by the end of this year.
According to the International Monetary Fund. In addition to more COVID-19 variants and the mismatch between supply and demand caused by the pandemic. Increased trade and technological tensions are also one of the main risk factors. That lead to uncertainty in the global recovery.
“The escalation of trade and technology tensions especially the escalation of trade and technology tensions between the United States and China. May affect investment and productivity growth, placing more obstacles on the road to recovery,” it pointed out.
The October World Economic Outlook of the International Monetary Fund provides a dedicated chapter on how the reversal of scientific integration in major economies. Such as the United States and China may affect global growth.
It uses an empirical framework to simulate scientific decoupling to reduce the intensity of citation between the two countries. According to the International Monetary Fund. This reduces the stock of foreign basic research available to each country, which in turn reduces innovation and productivity.
“As a purely illustrative example, complete decoupling. Modeled by reducing the number of citations between the two countries to zero. is estimated to reduce global patent flows by 4.4% and global productivity by 0.8%,” the IMF concluded.